Jhon Durán: Tactial Analysis & Scouting Report

What does Chelsea see in the player and what heights could he reach?

Jhon Durán, the ST from Aston Villa, is a name that has been buzzing in the transfer market. Durán has been a constant topic of discussion since his first links in the past winter's open transfer window as a potential striker target.

As you may already be aware, Durán emerged as a prime target this summer, particularly after Benjamin Sesko decided to renew his contract at RB Leipzig. This potential signing has the potential to bring a new wave of excitement to Chelsea FC. 

Durán has, in simplest terms, divided the fan base. One side is the "Clearlake Lovers," and the others I'd like to call the "standard holders"; wherever you are on that side of the fence, I think I am safely in the middle of it. From a business and recruitment strategy aspect, there are a couple of reasons to like the thought of a Durán signing:

• His shooting

• There are clear glimpses of real quality in the rest of his game

• Possible resale value in the future

However, there are a couple of reasons not to: it doesn't initially put the striker position in any real security, there are reported attitude problems, and there is the potential that his name never comes around. 

With all that being said, Chelsea have put themselves in the position, with Nicolas Jackson's market value undoubtedly high, to take a swing and a high-potential project. The thinking is that if  Jackson doesn't take the next big leap to become one of the Premier League's best strikers and Durán doesn't either, you should be able to turn a sizable profit on Jackson regardless if he makes a big step and attacks the striker market in the next few years. 

This unsettles some because there is a pretty decent crop of strikers available this summer, as mentioned in Luke's piece here. But if the right player for the right price isn't to the liking of Chelsea's recruitment team, I don't think I would want them to buy another Lukaku. Durán offers a promising build, but it is certainly flawed. Still, it is a nice medium that you can use to give Europa Conference League matches and offers a bruising profile that Chelsea hasn't had since the likes of Diego Costa. 

Regardless of my initial thoughts, I dove deep into WyScout and found some information that can give you, the reader, all the tools you need to make your own decision on Durán.

General Information

• Full Name: Jhon Jáder Durán Palacio

• Date of Birth: December 13, 2003

• Place of Birth: Medellín, Colombia

• Height: 1.85 m (6 ft 1 in)

• Position: Forward

• Current Club: Aston Villa 

• Preferred Foot: Left

Playing Style and Strengths

Physical Attributes:

Strength and Pace: 

Durán combines impressive physical strength with notable pace, making him formidable in the attacking third. His speed allows him to outrun defenders, while his strength helps him hold up play effectively. Durán’s strength stands out here, causing nightmares for PL quality centrebacks with his hold-up play and jostling on the run. Chelsea seems to be looking at the physicality of a striker by the list of their long-term admirers at the position: Osimhen, Sesko, Gyokeres, and Solanke. Having a bruising striker that can finish and get shots under pressure can help, as Jackson can be thrown off his course or ushered away from long balls. 

Another thing I like about Durán’s physicality is his ability to hold up everywhere on the pitch. Playing alongside Ollie Watkins frequently in a front two, Durán had the freedom to drop deep in the build-up to receive passes. Simply because of his strength and also because of his lack of passing accuracy, opposition defenders often swarmed him from all directions. By doing that and attempting to swarm the ball, they weighed the risk of a dangerous attack if he did complete the pass to the darting runner. 

Additionally, his speed and physicality aided his ability to get to long balls in the channels. Watching his clips felt a little like Michael Antonio or maybe Adama Traore esque, but he is definitely a mismatch when it comes to running through the channels. On average, he received just about the same amount of long passes per 90 as Antonio.

Height and Aerial Ability: Standing 6'1", he is vital in the air, making him a significant threat on set-pieces and crosses. It's not only the threat of him getting onto a ball, but also the number of bodies defenders need to throw at him. This can open up an extra body in the box. His aerial ability is okay and definitely can be improved in terms of finishing, as he only had about seven shots in the season of his 46 in all competitions. Durán does have a good ability using his head on long balls, but the passes out of it aren't always completed at a high rate.

Technical Skills:

Finishing: Durán has a good eye for goal, and with his shooting, there simply is no reason why his goal numbers shouldn’t increase with the chances that Chelsea provides their strikers. It is the trait that is most mouthwatering for Durán because his power and accuracy are already elite traits. He will try for the outstanding goal and may cause you to wonder what he is doing, but he can score them. So if he gets into better positions and limits the “WTF” shot attempts, you can get a well-rounded finisher. 

This chart here is an excellent representation of where Durán is as a finisher, 4 of his eight goals were on chances that had a 0.1 or below xG, and he took the most shots in that bucket. If you move some of those shots more into the 0.2-0.4 range, he could be a handy player in the long term. Furthermore, his shots/90, xG/90, and touches in the penalty area/90 are above average for outfield players in the PL last season.

Here are a couple of bangers from Durán enjoy!

Dribbling: His dribbling skills are solid, allowing him to take on defenders and create scoring opportunities for himself and his teammates. What is backed up in the stats that I noticed from Durán is that he tries to lay off a lot in the hold-up play rather than utilize a dribbled turn, which we frequently see from Jackson. He is also a dribble-to-shoot player, as seen in this clip.

This chart shows that in hold-up play situations, he kept the possession only three times when attempting the dribble. This was mostly because he tried to lay it off rather than turn and run.

While he is pretty one footed predominately utilizing the left on the dribble, he has some ability to play in the channels and dribble out of some physical scenarios.

First Touch: His first touch is reliable, which helps him control passes under pressure and maintain possession. A bigger player can control the ball in tight situations utilizing his frame and can move the ball along for a teammate or look to create a shot. 

Above is an excellent representation of his ability to hold up with a nice first touch and then a layoff to the cutting Watkins. This is a scenario that you can see that Chelsea doesn’t have at this point. Someone who can hit the runners in their attacking third and lay off a pass can open up several offensive opportunities. 

Tactical Awareness:

Positioning: Durán's positioning in the box is advanced for his age. He knows where to be to receive the ball, has a knack for finding space between defenders, and utilizes his frame to get open a lot. At Villa, Durán played a lot with Ollie Watkins, so he had some other responsibilities positionally. Watkins would be in areas to play in behind, and Durán would be much more featured in the lineup play. He had to know where his teammates were around him and notice that his movements would generally cause a reaction from the defense.  

Versatility: While primarily a central forward, he has also played on the wings, offering some flexibility. If he were to come in, he would be a prototypical #9, but his positioning could allow an interesting sequencing of play with Christopher Nkunku in the role that Ollie Watkins played when they both were sharing the pitch. 

Work Rate: He shows a high work rate, often pressing defenders and contributing defensively when needed. He has a similar quality to Sesko's, with many recoveries in the final third through several different methods. 

Work rate isn’t just in pressing. Its sometimes relentlessness; this clip is a great showcase of this; he is just a mauler in the box and sometimes won’t be denied or quit on an opportunity.

Areas for Improvement

Consistency & Decision Making: This is one of the more concerning things about Durán that I couldn’t shake with the 40 million evaluation that Aston Villa has on the player. Durán is sometimes wild on the ball, both with the shot, dribble and pass. A lot of errand shots and turnovers are a couple of things that concern me most. It’s one thing that has caused some worry, so he is commonly described as very raw. 

It's tough to say why this is the case: low football IQ, coaching, or lack of game time. It's a combination of the three; Unai Emery has reportedly not been interested in utilizing Durán in the future; he only played a little over 1300 minutes last season, and the run of games was very inconsistent. Can this be rectified at Chelsea? Who is to say? If Jackson is the central striker, and you still need to play Nkunku in those forward areas, will it be just the Carabao Cup and Europa Conference League? That isn't enough for football to see what we need out of Durán in the long term unless he can prove he is ready for a further workload and pushes for a solid role in the squad.

Link-Up Play: While his hold-up play is good, he can improve his link-up play, especially in tight spaces, to better involve his teammates. In link-up play, there are too many errant passes for my liking; when it works, it works, but if it doesn’t, it can lead to many turnovers. 

Conclusion

I am not sure what to think precisely of Durán’s potential. You would be blind not to see the player he could become, but can Chelsea truly offer him the matches required for him to reach these heights? As I mentioned, the Carabao Cup and Conference League are guaranteed minutes, but putting him out there in the Premier League when you need to achieve Champions League football in 2025 is another story.

Also, I was reminded of David Datro Fofana. I didn't watch a ton of Burnley last year, but when looking at the data and some of the clips, I saw something that would make sense about having Fofana as that backup striker for next season.

When looking at the subsequent shot, it appears that Durán gets more shots off, but it doesn’t seem like there is too much of a difference statistically from Fofana. Now, projection, its clear to me and most scouts that Durán has a higher ceiling to that of Fofana, but Fofana could be turned around for about a £10-15 million profit today, and Duran, if brought down into the £25 million range Chelsea is hoping for, can be paid for by the sales of Broja and Fofana, and even turning a small profit.

I would be interested in Durán for £25 million plus an additional £5 million in add-ons. I don’t think I would be into brining him in for too much higher in my opinion. He's a project player at this point, and paying through the nose for him wouldn’t make too much sense. I would also be okay with swapping some players who might be leaving.

Please let me know what you think in the comments! An accompanying video will come out in the next few days on my YouTube channel which can be found here.

Also if you haven’t yet give me a follow on Twitter here.

~ Dylan (CFCDP