Why Chelsea are prepared for a transfer ban and how it could benefit us

It explains a LOT about our transfer activity

In this window, Chelsea have signed so many players, I can’t actually keep up with them all. People have facetiously said our first team squad is giant now, with 6 goalkeepers. When, of course, we all know by September 1st we’ll have 3 GKs in the first team squad. 

But our transfer activity now has a different dimension. The conclusion to the investigation into the self-reported offences regarding illegal payments under the ownership of Roman Abramovich is said to be coming soon. Chelsea have yet to even be formally charged, but given the nature of offences, there’s likely to be a charge and some strong punishment handed down. 

The most likely outcome, in my view and the view of many, is a huge fine - which the ownership set aside funds for at the time they bought the club, and was reported at the time - but most notably, a transfer ban of up to two years (four transfer windows). Some have reported a points dedication, which could happen, but I’m personally sceptical whether it will come to that, given we’ve self-reported the offences, fully cooperated with the Premier League and they happened under a different ownership.

The transfer ban is the punishment most people seem to expect. I suspect the club expect it too, and I’d argue the reason for the crazy transfer activity in the last few windows is exactly because we know this could be our last transfer window until Summer 2026.

Its likely the ownership found these offences doing their due diligence, and set aside funds at the time, so it would make sense for them to adapt their transfer strategy accordingly. This ironically could have ultimately contributed to the need to sell some Cobham players for PSR.

So its interesting to see what would our squad could look like for the next two years - and what players we’ve signed but currently won’t be with the squad, could come into the squad next summer or summer after. 

I’m going to say for argument's sake we sign Joao Felix and Victor Osimhen - I expect us to sign a striker either way, whether it's Osimhen or someone else. I’m also going to have to make some assumptions about what players we loan or sell, so forgive me if this ends up being a little speculative. I’m assuming Ben Chilwell and Carney Chukwuemeka won’t be at the club this coming season, for example. We’ve been told our squad this season could be 26-27 players due to the number of fixtures, so I’ve accounted for this.

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First team squad for this season: 

GK: Simonsen, Sanchez, Betenelli 

RB: James, Gusto, Acheampong

LB: Cucurella, Viega 

CB: Tosin, Colwill, Fofana, Badiashile, Disasi (or replacement)

MID: Caicedo, Enzo Ferndandez, Lavia, Ugochukwu, KDH

ATT: Palmer, Nkunku, Neto, Noni/Sterling, Mudryk, Felix, (George???)

ST: Osimhen, Jackson, Guiu

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I think this is a pretty good squad TBH, one capable of a top four finish and winning the Conference League for sure. One which can mature and develop together under good coaching. Not to mention, most if not all players in that squad are young enough not just to be in their prime in two years, but still coming into their prime. 

But here’s the thing, we have these other big yong talents who might be available in summer 2025 to come into the squad, if we want or need to move players on then, or even just to sell next summer for revenue purposes: 

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GK: Mike Penders, Djorde Petrovic (unless sold), Gabriel Slolnina

LB: Caleb Willey

CB: Alfie Gilchrist, Aaron Anselmino

CM: Andrey Santos

AT: Estevao Willian, Kendry Paez, Angelo, Omari Kellyman (currently injured, could be loaned out in January for minutes)

ST: Davide Washington

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I’m sure there’s plenty I’ve missed out, and of course this doesn’t include any players who emerge through the Cobham conveyer belt in this time.

Even so, that’s a lot of talent who aren’t at the club yet or who are out on loan. We know for sure that Estevao and Paez (below) will definitely be joining the squad in summer 2025. This means up to two attackers, probably the likes of Mudryk, Sterling or Noni Madueke, will be sold or loaned next summer to make way.

Andrey Santos will be ready for the first team squad next summer too, and if a GK makes way, we have options to come in. Not to mention next summer, the likes of Tyrone George and Acheampong will be more ready for regular first team minutes. Caleb Willey has enough talent to push for a chance at LB if one of our current two don’t make it. 

This means we can refresh the squad next summer, and even improve it, without requiring any signings. Its likely there will be some sales next summer, so there’s some easy revenue there, thanks to the number of players we’ve invested in, most of whom will make some form of profit.

Its excellent forward planning, and means we’re well prepared even in the case of a two year ban on transfers. If we get injuries, we can recall players from loan to cover or just give ourselves a big enough squad to cope. 

The lack of transfer activity might also help create a stronger bond in the camp, a sense of community and togetherness, a greater spirit. 

Of course the final benefit potentially is financial. The lack of spending and ability to still sell players, means we can make easy profits on sales. If we make the Champions League, there’ll be extra revenue from that, and of course the likely giant commercial deals which could follow. By the end of the two years, Chelsea could be in a very strong position both on and off the pitch. A strong, maturing squad who’ve played together for 2-3 years, and a strong financial position, well within all financial rules - and potentially able to invest in one or two big players, if we need them. 

The plan has always been for long term sustainable success on and off the pitch. In 2 years time, we might start to see this bearing fruit.

Clearklake/Boehly, I think, have been preparing for a long transfer ban ever since they took over. This helps explain the excessive, sometimes chaotic, transfer spending, investment in young talent, and why it's all been done so quickly.  

If we can get the end of this window right, I personally won’t be worried about a transfer ban. We have a ton of talent in our squad, and a lot of talent ready to join us in the summer 2025. And I believe, next summer, we’ll have Estevao, Paez, and Andrey Santos all joining the squad, and hopefully taking us into our first Champions League campaign for a while. 

Of course, it would be typical of Chelsea Football Club to win either the league or Champions League during a big transfer ban when it's all against us, wouldn’t it?

The Score