What David Ornstein's comments mean for Pochettino's future & our (potential) manager search

Ornstein's comments were very revealing

In a recent article I said the owners had a real conundrum around Mauricio Pochettino’s future. Well events on Sunday heightened this even more. First, the comprehensive 5-0 win against West Ham, which gave us a chance of potentially even 5th place in the PL. That was a statement in itself.

But post match, there was a statement to the media by the ever reliable David Ornstein to NBC Sports about managerial candidates, and the owners expectations for the season. For me, Ornstein is probably the most reliable football journalist out there, if he says it, its’ almost certainly true. He doesn’t mess about with wild speculation.

So let’s examine his comments bit by bit.

First, on the expectations:

“Chelsea are demanding they qualify for Europe in the Europa League, not the Conference League.”

• David Ornstein to NBC Sports

OK, first, that to me is a fair expectation. I said after Nkunku’s injury, 6th/7th was a fair expectation, I stick by that.

So what will it take to achieve Europa league football?

Well 5th place is an automatic Europa League qualifying spot. Normally the winners of the league cup qualify for the Conference League and FA Cup the Europa league. But if the winners of both finish in the top 5, these drop down to the league. Liverpool won the league cup and have qualified for the Champions League, so 6th place is currently a Conference League qualifying spot.

However if Man City win the FA Cup (and they are heavy favourites) the Europa league spot for the winners, will go to 6th place in the PL and 7th will become a Conference League spot. If Man Utd win the cup, then 6th place will remain a Conference League spot and 7th won’t qualify for Europe at all.

I think 6th place would absolutely guarantee Europe of some kind - but that’s not enough for the owners. Now whether this would cost Pochettino his job is unclear, but there are now expectations to meet, and if he doesn’t meet them, his job could be in danger.

Which brings us to his next comments, which seem to be being underplayed but I find very interesting.

“When you see names like Antonio Conte, Jose Mourinho, Hansi Flick, Ruben Amorim linked with the Chelsea position, I’m assured that they will not be taking over at Chelsea, if there is a vacancy, but there isn’t yet.”

• David Ornstein to NBC Sports

The two names mentioned by David Ornstein here which raised my eyebrows were Hansi Flick and Ruben Amorim. These are two people who have been linked strongly with Chelsea in the last few months, whom the owners have spoken to before. Conte and Mourinho were never considered likely, so its totally understandable they are on this list, but the others….this makes it very interesting.

This suggests to me, Chelsea probably know who their chosen successor is IF they make change, and may even have had discreet conversations.

Thing is, others can be ruled out too. You can immediately rule out Roberto De Zerbi, who not only has a £12m release clause, Brighton aren’t doing too well and he’s also publicly committed himself to Brighton twice over the weekend. If Chelsea were even a remote possibility, I doubt he would have done this.

Sebastian HoeneB can also probably be ruled out, as he’s signed a new deal at Stuttgart and publicly committed to them. Michel Sanchez at Girona, another who was recently linked to the job, is likely to remain there for another season.

I’m also sceptical if the club wants to pay compensation or a release clause for a manager as well. Which narrows down the list even further.

So who is left?

Thiago Motta is out of contract this summer after an incredible season at Bologna, and looks like he’s leaving. There’ve been strong rumours about Juventus, but these haven’t been confirmed by solid sources yet, and nothing has been signed. He was linked with Chelsea in the last week and certainly fits the profile and philosophy we’d be looking for.

Then there’s one more who is available and would cost nothing, and wasn’t ruled out. You might have heard of him. Thomas Tuchel.

He’s definitely leaving Bayern Munich, and its been publicly confirmed by good sources he’s open to a return to Chelsea. He’s said to be anxious to coach again in the Premier League, and has been linked to Manchester United, and even West Ham! All the noise from Chelsea is that a return is unlikely, and it would require compromise on both sides, especially from Behdad Eghbali.

As such, Tuchel returning seems very unlikely to me, though it is strange and notable Ornstein didn’t rule him out. However, if we’re trying to build a long term project, he’s probably not the right profile. He’s a short term manager who will deliver instant results, but we all know he’ll be gone in two years. That’s not what Chelsea need right now, though I’m sure he’d do a good job.

And the final option:

Ornstein did say “IF” there is a vacancy and there isn’t one currently. So maybe this is all bluff, to put pressure on Pochettino and the players to deliver in these last few games, and their ultimate plan is to keep Mauricio Pochettino into next season.

It’s got to be made clear, our form has been excellent recently. You can see players improving, the team are gelling, they are maturing and looking a lot more in control of games. We’re not only seeing out wins but scoring a lot of goals too.

The defeat by Arsenal seems to have had a motivational impact, and focussed the squad and manager even more. We look better tactically, better organised defensively and we’re seeing more patterns of play. Since Christmas, only 3 teams have had better league form. Not to mention, its’ more clear than ever the whole squad are fully behind him and playing for him.

I also think stability at manager level might be a good thing for the mens team right now. There’s been so little stability on the mens’ side for two years, this might be a good opportunity to deliver that. Pochettino remaining for one more season to continue this progression probably wouldn’t be the worst thing. I personally think whoever is in charge next season, there will be clear improvements on this season.

Maybe, the owners want to put pressure on him to finish the season well, but ultimately would prefer to keep him, and will do if we qualify for Europe.

I’ve always said that I think a change would make sense in an ideal scenario, and I won’t reassess this view until the season is over. But I don’t want a change for the sake of a change, only change managers if you’ve got a genuine proven upgrade who you can commit to long term, and you know can stick around for the long term. If not, it's probably better to keep Poch and have some stability for another year, then reassess next summer. He has an extension clause in his contract to ensure you don’t lose him for free if you want to keep him.

The biggest conclusion here, is the club is clearly doing a good job keeping things quiet. Most of us thought Ruben Amorim was the top target if Poch left, many usually reliable sources had even suggested as much, but now it appears he’s not even on the shortlist. Chelsea are keeping their cards very close to their chest on this, and no one knows yet how it's going to turn out.

Certainly, the next few weeks, as we approach the end of season and we find out about Pochettino’s future, are going to be very interesting and crucial weeks for Chelsea going forward. I don’t envy our decision makers in this coming period.

We can only hope the right decisions are made for the good of Chelsea, and we can move forward into a better season next year.

The Score