The data that shows why Chelsea might stick with Pochettino

The data is surprisingly good

Mauricio Pochettino's future seems to have been a talking point amongst Chelsea fans, particularly on social media, since around November. In the last two months, since the defeat against Wolves, it's only ramped up further. Fans in the ground singing "You don't know what you're doing", an increasing number of normally calm, patient and rational fans - including myself - coming to the belief he needed to go in the summer, some even wanting change earlier. 

My personal concerns - lack of clear tactical structure and identity, intense training methods which can lead to more injuries, lack of connection with fans and some questionable, in my view disrespectful comments in some press conferences - are very clear and still very valid, and not only held by myself but many others. 

However, the line from the club is still very much they are backing Pochettino, giving him time and will assess in the summer. That's fair and I actually respect them for giving him time and not making reactionary decisions. 

But the thing is, if they do decide to keep Poch next season, there is a lot of good data backing up their decision. For all my and others valid complaints and concerns, the fact is that since Christmas, 13 PL games (a third of a PL season), Chelsea are actually 4th in the form table. Only City, Arsenal and Liverpool have done better.

Chelsea have lost only 2 in our last 13 PL games and are unbeaten in 7 PL games. That 13 game spell includes games against Man City and Liverpool away, Newcastle and Man Utd at home, all teams above us in the table, only one of which we lost.Our win % in that run is 52%. Chelsea have 25 points over their last 13 games, a point per game ratio of 1.92, which over a 38 game season would see us end with 73 points. The same as Thomas Tuchel achieved in 21/22 season, and likely enough to get us 4th or 5th place this season.

In all competitions in that period, our run was just as good. In 90 minute matches (not counting extra time v Liverpool in the league cup final), we've played 21 games, won 12, lost 3 and drawn 6. That includes home and away games v Villa and a cup final v Liverpool. Even counting the final as a loss, our record would be W12 L4 D5, which over 38 games is 1.95 points per game, giving Chelsea 74 points over 38 games. 

Chelsea have also lost only one of our last 17 home games in all competitions. A record going back to October. In fact, we’ve only lost 4 times in 25 home games this season in all comps. Chelsea’s record at home has improved dramatically under Pochettino.

In terms of goalscoring, we’ve scored 87 goals in 43 games in all competitions so far this season. Over 2 goals per game. Last season we scored 50 goals in 50 games in all comps, so even without Cole Palmer’s 20 PL goals we’ve gone well over what we scored last season, which is another positive. The negative to counter this, is we’ve conceded a lot more than last season, which is an issue Poch needs to address.

The data is clear however, there is no doubt Chelsea have improved over the course of the season and definitely improved from last season. My guess is we'll end up between 58-61 points (which funnily enough I predicted in the summer and in January in my articles then), and have a good chance to finish at least 7th, which will ensure us European football next year. 

Of course Cole Palmer’s incredible form is one of the reasons for this. Palmer himself recently acknowledged the positive impact of Pochettino’s coaching on him and seems to be behind his manager.

When you look at all the above data (as the directors and owners likely will), there's clear signs of improvement and development over the season.

On top of this there's clearly a good team spirit, fighting qualities and good atmosphere in the squad too. Poch’s man management is world class and that’s clear to see. We hear no murmurings of players unhappy with the manager and the body language of the players backs the reports saying the players are fully behind Pochettino, a refreshing change from recent years. You can see they're still playing for him, despite some poor results, which is something rare at Chelsea in recent times. 

For all my genuine, serious concerns about Pochettino and belief Chelsea would benefit from a managerial change in the summer, the reality is Chelsea are doing well right now. If (a big IF too) we continue to improve and get results until the end of the season, European football is very much achievable this season.

Given how we've played against City in our two games against them this season, I wouldn't put it past us to get to the cup final, and even win the cup. 

If any of this occurs, the owners may be reluctant to ditch Pochettino in the summer. And the data would show they might, despite my and many others protestations, have a point. 

If Pochettino does end up getting into Europe and/or wins the cup not many can argue he deserves to keep his job. Whether he should, or him staying is in the best long term interests of the club, is a different question.

But if he is here next season, it’ll be because he earned it. I’m always willing to acknowledge I got it wrong, so if he continues to do well, the team keep to improving, and he proves me wrong and stays, he’ll get my full support.

Ultimately myself, like all fans really just want Chelsea to be winning, and performing well consistently. If that’s under Pochettino next season, so be it. If not, I’ll back whoever is in charge.

After all, Chelsea doing well on the pitch is what matters most to us fans.

The Score