Reality check: The last two results are disappointing - but we've still made huge progress

The best is yet to come from this team, we need to back them

The last couple of games have been disappointing in terms of result and performance. But the most difficult thing for me is the same thing which happens anytime Chelsea don’t win a game. The overreaction of a section of the fanbase.

Two poor games, and suddenly all our players are crap, we need to sell half the squad, and Maresca is under pressure or should be sacked. Absolutely ridiculous.

So lets be real about this.

Yes, the last two games we’ve performed poorly.

Yes, head coach Enzo Maresca has made some mistakes, in the main, waiting too long to make subs.

Yes, it's very frustrating and disappointing. There’s no sugar coating it, and being fair, Maresca hasn’t done so either.

Enzo Maresca hasn’t hid behind “the boys gave everything” or “we played well” or “we were unlucky”, especially post Fulham he’s been up front about how we’ve played poorly, lost control of games, been poor on transitions, were taught a lesson and have things to learn and improve on. That’s important, because honest acknowledgement of these mistakes and bad performances from the head coach, is the beginning of improvement.

The last two games have been a reality check for everyone, fans and players alike. Maresca not so, as he said for weeks we weren’t ready to challenge for the title and had too much inexperience, and lessons to learn. Now it turns out he was right.

I for one never thought we had a chance of the title, and any talk of that was ridiculously premature for this squad, and pressure they didn’t need.

My expectation for us this season was to finish 3rd or 4th, and to win the Conference League. I think we’re well on course for both. Indeed we’re doing better than even I predicted back in August - and my prediction was seen as over optimistic.

We were always going to have a rough period, all teams do, especially young teams like ours. But I believe in the talent and character of this squad and Maresca’s tactical and coaching ability. Looking at our record this season overall, and even 2024 as a whole, to me that’s been proven and earned.

Which brings me to the other reality check.

Post-Fulham, this season Chelsea are 2nd in the Premier League with 35 points after 17 PL games, if Arsenal win their game in hand, 3rd.

Our current points per game after the Fulham game, nearly half way through the season, is 2.05, which would be 78 points if maintained over the PL season. That would be our highest points total since we won the league under Antonio Conte in 2017.

Chelsea are 6 points clear of 5th and 6th place. Not only that, but if English teams keep doing well in Europe, 5th spot could well be a Champions League spot anyway. So in terms of achieving CL football, we’re in a strong position even now.

Chelsea are the second highest scorers in the PL this season, and believe it or not, have the fourth best defence in the PL.

With one PL game of the 2024 calendar year left, Chelsea have been the 4th best team in the PL. In the 36 PL games since Jan 1st 2024, we’ve got 70 points. 10 points ahead of the 5th placed team. Only 12 points behind Arsenal in 1st.

Our points per game in the 2024 calendar year is 1.94, which is 73/74 points over 38 games, enough for top 4 in the last few seasons and a huge improvement from the 2023 calendar year when were THIRTEENTH with 48 points.

We’ve also lost only 6 PL games out of 36 in 2024, a stat which is reflected in our PL form this season, when we’ve only lost 3 in 17 games, and have the third highest goals per game metrics in that time.

All the above are patterns and metrics taken over long periods of time, whether that’s 17 PL games this season - nearly half a season - or over a calendar year. That suggests they aren’t a flash in the pan or short term form, but a steady pattern over a season.

The data is clear, there’s no reason to have a meltdown, or become all negative, or even be concerned right now.

In terms of the squad, I said a few weeks ago, we were still 3-4 players and some time away from being serious contenders. I believed this when everyone said we were title contenders, I believe it now.

We clearly need a different profile of striker and CB to deal with the physicality of a lot of games. Thankfully, the sporting directors agree, as we’ve already been linked with the likes of Liam Delap up front, who has that profile, and with a number of CBs.

I’m still not confident Robert Sanchez is the long term solution in goal, and we have alternative GKs who deserve a try. Jorgensen has shown he deserves a chance and we have Mike Penders and even Djorde Petrovic coming back potentially.

Andrey Santos will likely come back and beef up our midfield options in the summer and Estevao Willian will come in and improve our creativity and goalscoring options in the attacking third.

Overall, there’s no need to panic, and I doubt the owners or sporting directors will do so. We have a great opportunity to get back into form away to Ipswich in a few days, and hopefully now have the kick up the backside needed to get our form back. Maresca is relentless in his preparation and we know his standards.

In my view, we need to be calm, get behind the players and manager and remember how much progress we’ve made this season. Fulham especially was poor, and we’ll likely have some more setbacks before May. But I absolutely believe we will improve over the season, get top 4 and win the Conference League.

Then, we can make the necessary improvements in the summer, and go into next season aiming to finish in the top 2 or 3 and challenge for the title till April/May. This is a long term project and long term process. We’re making progress but not there yet. Step by step. Keep the faith.

The Score