More Goals and Top 4 Form: What the data says about Poch's Chelsea

The only outcome of the review should be Pochettino staying

So we’ve come to the end of Mauricio Pochettino’s first season as Chelsea head coach. It’s been an emotional rollercoaster with big highs and big lows, but we end it in 6th place in the PL with 63 points, and guaranteed European qualification.

Now of course, we come to the evaluation of this season. It's expected in the next few days, and then we will hear the club's decision about Pochettino’s future.

Back in September I took a look at where our goals would come from, and predicted we’d be on 29 points after 20 games (we had 28), and get between 61-68 points in the season.

In January I amended this prediction, assessing our best case scenario as finishing 6th with 62 points, which is pretty much where we’ve ended up.

I also made predictions about goalscoring, and where the goals were coming from. None of these took into account how good Cole Palmer would be, or that Nkunku would miss the whole season with injuries.

But the goalscoring stats make good reading nonetheless. We scored 103 goals in 51 games in all competitions, and 77 goals in the league, both huge improvements over last season.

Our leading goalscorers were (in all comps):

Cole Palmer: 25 goals & 15 assists in all 45 games

Nicolas Jackson: 17 goals & 6 assists in all 44 games

Raheem Sterling: 10 goals & 8 assists in 43 games

Noni Madueke: 8 goals & 3 assists in 34 games

Conor Gallagher: 7 goals & 9 assists in 50 games

Enzo Ferndanez: 7 goals & 3 assists in 40 games

Mykhailo Mudryk: 7 goals & 2 assists in 41 games

These 7 players scored 81 of our 103 goals. We got 14 goals from two midfielders combined and our 5 attackers listed scored 67 (not including 2 goals from Armando Broja). So despite Cole Palmer grabbing the headlines, a lot of other attackers made significant contributions.

This is encouraging going into next season, and also shows the work Pochettino has done improving our attack.

Now onto the data on our results. I’m looking here at patterns over various numbers of games, mainly in the PL. I want to get a fair pattern over various sample sizes to try and get an accurate figure.

I find it interesting people are focussing a lot on our final 6 games - won 5, drawn 1 - which got us into 6th place, immiediately after the disaster against Arsenal. I understand this as it was the most consistent we’ve been all season, and the best we’ve performed. But looking at the data, overall, our form has been top 4 quality for all but 10 games of this PL season.

So lets take a look at the form guides for various amounts PL games for Chelsea, and we’ll also put in an overview including cup games.

Last 10 PL games:

3rd - 23pts - 2.3 Points Per Game - 87 pts in 38 games (3rd this season)

Last 21 PL games:

4th - 41pts - 1.95 Points Per Game - 74 pts in 38 (4th this season)

Last 28 PL games:

4th - 51pts - 1.82 Points Per Game - 5pts clear of 5th - 69 pts in 38 (4th this season)

Overall record including Cup Games from Oct 28th:

Played 38 - Won 20 / Lost 10 / Drew 8 - in a PL season, 68 points (4th this season)

Those last two figures are the biggest indicators for me.

28 games, including games against all the top teams, home and away, with a lot of injuries. And of course, a 38 game measure is in essence a full PL season. We played teams like Newcastle (x2), Liverpool, Aston Villa and Man City in the cups too, so the opposition level was high.

After game-week 10 against Brentford in 28th October 2023, (game-week 11 was 6th November 2023) until the end of the season, we were the fourth best team in the Premier League. Only Spurs good start stopped us overtaking them in 5th and we ended only 5 points behind the team who finished 4th, Aston Villa, and only one behind them on goal difference.

Also, remember, this was achieved largely without Reece James, Christopher Nkunku, Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia, who were all missing nearly all season, and 54 injuries overall meaning Poch could never pick his first choice team.

We all laughed last summer when the sporting directors and owners demanded a 4th place finish based on their data. But they weren’t actually far off in the end. If we’d won that 0-0 against Bournemouth and won against Sheff Utd away and Burnley, we’d have finished 4th on goal difference, win another of our draws, we’d be clear in 4th.

They rightly changed their expectations to Europa league based on the injuries, and again, that’s highly possible if City win the cup, which I expect them to. Even so, we’ve definitely got European football and were only 3 points off 5th place, which was Europa through the PL direct.

The sporting directors will look at why we had a poor start. I would say the following:

First we lost Christopher Nkunku and Reece James suddenly an unexpectedly, so had to adjust tactically.

Secondly, Cole Palmer joined late and didn’t start until a few games into this poor start.

Thirdly, Caicedo had almost no pre-season before joining us and the pressure of a big move, so we had no way of seeing his best form until the late Autumn/Winter, which set us back in midfield.

Fourth, the squad was basically new, quite inexperienced with a lot of additions and people didn’t really know each other well yet.

Overall, I think given those circumstances a poor start was always likely. The key was that this form didn’t last. As time went on we were more consistent, players improved, team spirit was built and so on. That’s resulted in our form since November and where we are now.

As such I think, in this context, to achieve 6th place and reach a cup final and semi final, is a positive achievement in Pochettino’s first season.

Pochettino has laid clear foundations which we can build on next season. Our squad should continue to improve, we will have key players back from injury, and hopefully we will also add to the squad. I’m pretty confident if we continue this development, 4th place and a trophy is a realistic goal next season.

There’s absolutely no reason to remove Pochettino as head coach. There’s no legitimate upgrade available or said to be a candidate.

The players are fully behind Pochettino and believe in him, he’s built a good team spirit, good mentality, we look to have chemistry and a tactical identity on the pitch and players are improving. The form, in terms of points per game, has been good. For a lot of the season, we’ve been the 4th best team.

If we can add some proven quality in key areas, and some leaders to the squad, as well as get rid of players who need to move on and keep the right ones (that includes Trevoh Chalobah and Conor Gallagher ideally), there’s no reason why next season can’t be another step forward.

I believe we should now publicly confirm Pochettino for next season. Give him some public support, maybe activate his extension to 2026, then get the squad building right, and move with positive momentum into next season.

To do anything else, is simply too big a risk, and an unnecessary one at that.

The Score