Chelsea's 50 year old Managerial Magic Bullet Theory

Chelsea have been a hire-fire club longer than you think

I’m writing this only 24 hours after the 1-0 defeat to Middlesbrough in the league cup semi final first leg.

Yet again, I go on twitter and see everyone resorting to what I’m beginning to call “Managerial Magic Bullet Theory”. That is, sack the manager, change the coaching staff, and appoint the right one and suddenly it will all be magically OK. Until that manager loses a few games or does something fans don’t like, and they get a target laid on their heads.

Its’ been a revolving door at Chelsea in the last 20 years, and I can safely say I’ve had my fill of it. I’m tired of the drama of changing managers what seems almost every year, and the emotional rollercoaster which happens just before and after.

I’ve been longing my whole life for Chelsea to finally have a dynasty manager. A manager who stays at Chelsea 8-10 years and wins the lot, dominates. To have stability with a great manager. Hire and fire worked when we had little financial competition but in recent years, the most successful English clubs, Man City and Liverpool, have employed managers for 8 and 9 years respectively. Both had rocky beginnings but were persevered with, and we all see the effects.

The current owners came in with the mission to change the managerial culture at the club, and end hire and fire. That’s still the goal, despite the mishaps of 2022/23.

However I’m beginning to resign myself we’ll never get that long term manager we all want - at least, not for a while.

Because what I’ve realised, is the culture of constant managerial changes actually pre-dates Roman Abramovich. By about 29 years.

Look at these stats:

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• Since Dave Sexton left in October 1974, Chelsea have only had ONE manager who has lasted four full seasons in charge. We’ve also had only THREE managers who’ve completed 3 full seasons.

• In the last 49 years and 3 months - 591 months in total, Chelsea have had 29 - TWENTY NINE - different permanent managers.

• The average tenure of a Chelsea permanent manager since the 1970’s is 20 months - at just shy of two seasons,

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So no wonder our whole fanbase, old and new, match-going or not, are impatient with managers. We’re simply not used to having a manager more than 2 years, and most times when things go bad, we make a change immediately.

That’s not just Abramovich culture, its Chelsea culture. Its been part of our clubs DNA under four different ownerships over nearly 50 years.

But here’s some interesting facts.

The most successful manager of the last 49 years - and in our history - was the third longest serving in that time. Jose Mourinho. He served three full seasons and the start of a fourth, and he certainly didn’t leave due to results, but an ego clash with the then owner, Roman Abramovich.

They eventually made peace and he returned in 2013 for a further 2 and a half years. Collectively, Jose Mourinho served 5 years and 9 months as Chelsea manager over two spells, still the most time any manager has been in charge of the club since Dave Sexton.

The late John Neal is the longest serving Chelsea manager since the 70s. He managed Chelsea for four seasons, between 1981-1985. He won us promotion in his second season, then the next year finished 6th in the top division and reached the league cup semi finals in his first year back after promotion playing some great football. He repeated the 6th place the next year, after which he departed due to ill health. If not for his health, he would undoubtedly stayed longer, and maybe won a trophy.

Gianluca Vialli, Carlo Ancelotti, Antonio Conte, and Thomas Tuchel spent around two years (2 and a half years in Vialli’s case, 20 months in Tuchel’s), in charge and won 11 trophies between them, including two Premier League titles, the Cup Winners Cup and the Champions League.

Glenn Hoddle and Claudio Ranieri both had three seasons - Claudio nearly four, making him the second longest serving manager since the 70s - and both you could say laid strong foundations for glory-laden eras which followed, providing stability and a platform for their successors to build from.

Another interesting point is the the profile of the longest serving managers.

John Neal, Claudio Ranieri, Jose Mourinho, Glenn Hoddle, Gianluca Vialli, Carlo Ancelotti, Antonio Conte, Thomas Tuchel.

All of them, bar Glenn Hoddle, are relatively pragmatic managers who adapted slightly to win. Glenn adapted a little until he had the players for his system, but he was given time to develop it and in his third year, it bore fruit. Its legacy was the great football from the Gullit and Vialli team which one a lot of trophies.

Other ‘project/philosophy’ managers we’ve had and how long they were in charge:

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• Luis Felipe Scolari - 7 months

• Andre Villas Boas - 8 months

• Maurizio Sarri - one season

• Graham Potter - 7 months

• Mauricio Pochettino - 6 months*

  * (as of Jan 10th 2024, still in post).

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Chelsea have only had one ‘project/philosophy’ manager whose tenure could be called a success. Glenn Hoddle.

Hoddle is ironically one who many credit with the laying the foundations of Chelsea moving from a mid table club in 1993 to global giant and serial trophy winning club it now is. Many argue without those foundations, Chelsea would not have had the success we have currently had.

Hoddle was given more time, purely because at the time he took over, the expectations weren’t high. Chelsea had just avoided relegation. There was nowhere to go but up, and he was an icon of the game who could raise our profile and attract players to the club.

Hoddle’s revolution was even bigger off the pitch than on it. He raised standards behind the scenes. When he took over there was no managers office, the training ground phone was a payphone, and the facilities and diet were appalling. He revolutionised the club behind the scenes, and saw us improve on it, reaching a cup final, European semi final and a further semi final, attracting the likes of Ruud Gullit, Mark Hughes and Dan Petrescu, all of whom became club icons.

The expectations of Chelsea fans now, of course, are much higher, and there is much less patience from them (and most likely the owners). Many want Pochettino out despite reaching a still winnable semi final. Will we see another Hoddle type project success to revolutionise the club? I have my doubts.

For nearly 50 years, most Chelsea fans have not been used to having managers for more than two years. Those are the exception rather than the rule. Chelsea fans are used to changing managers every time it gets difficult.

The most successful managers we’ve had have been the ones who’ve served the longest overall. But that longevity has had to be earned, in the main, but early success.

So to come in and want to change that, whilst noble, appears nigh on impossible.

Its’ worth asking the question of whether the club should persevere with this ideal of finally having a long term manager, or to just accept Chelsea fans and club culture and not be so dead set on having a long term guy.

One option would be to still try to lean in to having more stability by appointing managers of specific profiles (more on that another time), so there’s a natural continuity or evolution of style (a bit like Barcelona, or dare I say it, Brighton), but without the pressure of any manager being set up to be a long term man. With an elite sporting director staying in post for a long time to provide stability and leadership.

Which brings us back to now.

My hope is Pochettino turns the corner, gets us more consistent, develops a style, and takes us up to 6th/7th and wins the league cup. I don’t believe this is impossible but there has to be some improvement (and better luck with injuries). Pochettino has the chance to be the Glenn Hoddle / Claudio Ranieri of this era, building a team, developing players, and laying solid foundations which can last for a long time to come.

I sincerely hope this is the case. It would make a refreshing change for sure and would be good for the club.

That said, if the history of this club from the last 50 years carries on as it has, then whatever happens, he’ll likely be gone within 6-18 months or so, unless he achieves some major success.

After all, it seems the Chelsea Magic Bullet eventually arrives for every Chelsea manager.

The Score