Why Chelsea Aren't Getting The Best Out of Romelu Lukaku - Tactical Analysis
Our first tactical analysis deep dive piece from top Analyst - @CFCCentral3
Contribution Article by @CFCCentral3
Introduction
At this point, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Chelsea’s season review is titled “A Series of Unfortunate Events.” After a start that suggested they could do no wrong, an unprecedented 18 players absent through injury and illness has led to a poor run of form where they have managed no home wins for almost 3 months.
Then came a loss to Man City which practically ended even the most optimistic fan’s hopes of a title challenge. In the middle of all this, Romelu Lukaku, signed to save Chelsea from misery, offered up that interview, and suddenly all the stockpiled frustration and misery over injuries, illness and unfair postponements (and lack of them) found a tangible target.
But is the £97.5m Belgian forward truly the root of all misfortune? What has changed since Lukaku’s flying start of four goals in his first four games? Is he failing to adapt or are Chelsea failing to adapt to him?
Lack of Rhythm
Lukaku’s first game proved memorable largely due to Arsenal’s poor defensive organisation and the element of surprise – he managed 42 touches in the attacking third and penalty area, a feat he hasn’t emulated in the league since (he managed 36 in both games vs. Zenit; his highest in the league is 29 vs. Brighton at the Bridge.)
Over the next few games, teams began to figure out the one-dimensional approach of playing the line-breaking passes for him to hold up; defenders grew wise to the pass and began cutting it out.
The lack of a preseason became telling, as he failed to score in his next seven appearances, before injury and Covid limited his minutes and prevented any consistent spell at full match sharpness. He has only managed 999 minutes (just over 11 games out of 23) in the league and has only completed the full 90 five times.
The result has been frustrating for club, player and fans alike, making him look like a square peg in a round hole. This lack of consistency has been compounded by the fact that in games where he has played more than 60 minutes, he has featured in ten different attacking combinations – he has played only one of them (with Timo Werner as a strike partner) more than twice. Stop-start playing time due to injuries and illness, a lack of preseason and a constantly changing attack all seem significant in his lack of contributions.
Underlying Numbers
Lukaku’s numbers at Chelsea are interesting. In contrast to what the eye-test suggests, Lukaku is actually generating an output only marginally inferior than his blockbuster season for Inter last season. His chance conversion is only about 1% lesser while his shooting accuracy has only dropped by about 3%. Of the 9 shots he has taken on target this season, he has scored 5. While this suggests he scores one out of every two shots on target, it is also worrying that he has managed only 9 in 1000 minutes of PL football.
The major drop off from last season seems to be his shots/90, which has taken a 35.9% dive from 2.3 to 1.6, according to Opta/Squawka. Salah, in comparison, takes almost twice the shots per 90 (3), while De Bruyne manages 2.4, Jota has 2.8, Ronaldo 2.9 and Harry Kane 2.7. All of them convert a lesser% of their chances than Lukaku.
In 1000 minutes, Lukaku has missed only 3 big chances; Salah has missed 12 (most in the league), Jota 11 (2nd), Kane 10 (5th) and Ronaldo 8 (6th). Compared to his time at Inter, Lukaku is also averaging 9.29 touches lesser in between the middle and attacking 3rd, according to fbref. Despite this, he is still slightly overperforming on his non-penalty expected goals. The numbers do suggest that the service to Lukaku hasn’t been good enough, and he isn’t getting in or staying in the kind of zones where he is at his best.
Credit: Opta via Squawka
Another frequent complaint is that he does not press. While it is true that Chelsea’s CL winning triumph was built on the foundations a selfless, industrious unit, the demand for an elite finisher like Lukaku to press feels forced out of circumstance rather than reason. He currently inflicts 8.11 pressures per 90 minutes. For context, Lewandowski presses 8.73 per 90, Benzema 9.23 times per 90 (7.58 last season) and Haaland, with his freakish athleticism, manages 12.4. It is a certainty that if Lukaku emulates his finishing from last season, this complaint will become redundant, unless Werner (19.5 per 90) and Havertz (16.9 per 90) find their scoring boots.
Wingback Conundrum
Lukaku’s debut goal against Arsenal was a near carbon-copy of his first goal in the season before with Inter against Fiorentina. A quick ball played into his feet was laid off expertly in space for Sanchez, who played a quick ball over the top for Hakimi at RWB, who expertly played a quick ball for Lukaku to score. It was Reece James who played in the final ball for Lukaku after a lovely ball over the defense from Kovacic.
Chelsea’s WBs have been invaluable in Tuchel’s system – providing not just width but also helping pin back opponents with their advanced positioning. Last season, 7 of his goals came through assists by wingbacks (4 from Hakimi, 2 from Perisic and 1 by Young.) It isn’t a surprise that long term injuries to Chilwell and James, two highly dynamic WBs who benefit the most from Tuchel’s system, have hampered service to Lukaku. Reece James, for instance, averages 38.7 touches in the attacking 3rd per 90 minutes; the highest in the Chelsea squad for anyone with at least 500 minutes. Chilwell comes 3rd at 33.8. Alonso averages 28.4 (6th), while Azpi (as an RCB/RWB) 21.4 (12th). Chilwell averages 4.37 touches per 90 in the penalty area while James averages 3.63; Alonso averages 2.64 and Azpi is at 2.36. James (2.50 per 90) also ranks 1st among Chelsea players for key passes while Chilwell (1.67) ranks 5th.
This lack of initiative and threat from backup wingbacks is hurting not just Lukaku but the side as a whole.
Credit: Opta via Squawka
Potential Fixes
There have been glimpses of Chelsea recreating situations where Lukaku is genuinely world-class. The problem is that these situations haven’t occurred frequently enough. So what do Chelsea need to stop doing or do more frequently to bring the best out of the Belgian?
Reduce over-reliance on hold up play: Arguably the one factor contributing to Lukaku’s frustration the most is being forced to function as a reference point. By his own admission, he hates the label of a target man; with his back to goal he is limited to lay-offs and link up play (which he isn't bad at by any means.) But this takes away a lot of Lukaku’s strengths compared to when he receives facing the goal, or when the ball is played with enough power on either side of him to be able to roll his marker.
This is reflected in his numbers too – at Inter last season, he won 37/99 aerial duels in 2,844 minutes (37.4% success.) This season he has won 32/61 duels in just 999 minutes (52.4%). While this may suggest he has improved aerially, he is actually losing more aerial duels per game this season (2.61) than last season (1.94).
Lukaku, a world class counter-attacking forward, is also suffering from poor attacking transitions, one of the many reasons why all of Chelsea’s forwards seem to struggle. Let us take this example against Brighton, where Lukaku is in his own defensive third. He holds up the ball expertly against Dan Burn (LCB) and lays it off to Kante. At this point, Kante has three options for a devastating transition, with one Brighton CB out of position and the center and right flank providing oceans of space. Kante however passes behind, killing any advantage for a counter.
Chelsea would fare far better by asking Lukaku to chase long balls into space rather than asking him to hold it up (which brings us to the next point.)
Transitions with passes into space: The game against Brighton provided multiple instances of why the use of this ploy is so dangerous, and why doing the opposite leads to Lukaku’s ineffectiveness. Most of his touches came when he was contesting clearances or balls under pressure in the middle or defensive third. Multiple times he was forced to turn to a single option, leading to either losing the ball or the attack fizzling out.
The two instances when balls were played into space for him to chase caused Brighton the most issues – the first leading to a shooting chance for Azpilicueta (an opportunity Reece James would have relished) and the second had Dan Burn scrambling towards his own goal before making a desperate lunge.
Lukaku’s second half cameo against Villa showed how dangerous he is when allowed to do run into space. The penalty was won because he was asked to run into space rather than to hold it up. He bullied Matt Targett, then made Konsa panic into a last minute lunge.
1v1 isolations: Due to his all-round capabilities, Lukaku is often devastating when able to engage defenders 1v1. This is prominent in crossing situations, when he generally shows expertise at being able to get ahead of his marker. Chelsea have already reaped the rewards of this with Lukaku; increasing the frequency of these engagements will only serve to boost his goals tally.
Against Brighton, Lukaku got himself 1v1 multiple times against defenders but he was almost always ignored. The one time Rudiger did play him in, he forced Sanchez into a save.
Chelsea attackers need to be switched on to moments when he manages to isolate himself against a single CB, and be prepared to play passes to initiate that engagement. Chelsea rank tied 17th in the table for accurate crosses per 90 into the box (1.52), despite supplying 12.3 crosses per 90 (6th in the league). Liverpool rank 1st with 15.4 and City are 2nd with 14.7; both supply more accurate crosses per game. Losing both first-choice wingbacks seems to be hurting Chelsea everywhere.
Space and the 2nd forward: Since Lukaku generally likes dropping deep or wide, it is important for Chelsea’s other attackers to target spaces he creates, or create it by playing a line-breaking pass, waiting for defenders to get drawn to him and make the relevant run. Against Brighton here, Lukaku holds off Webster and brings Mount into play. Ziyech targets the space left by Webster, but Mount’s delay forces Ziyech to stray offside.
This is an aspect of Lukaku’s play that is underrated, as space created is not a quantifiable statistical metric. At Inter, Lautaro Martinez benefitted massively from running into these spaces beyond Lukaku, often receiving 1v1 situations with a lone defender.
There have been glimpses of Chelsea using these spaces right, with the away game earlier in the season against Spurs a highlight in particular. Observe how Mount targets space and runs beyond Lukaku who has dragged Spurs’ line further than the halfway line; also note Lukaku’s incredible effort to catch up with Mount and create an excellent opportunity. Werner also had the right ideas, allowing Spurs' defenders to get drawn towards Lukaku and using the extra space to get better chances.
The problem at Chelsea is that all forwards have been goal-shy or flawed; Ziyech lacks the explosiveness to run in behind, Hudson-Odoi and Werner’s finishing has been poor, Pulisic seems to have lost his vital burst of acceleration, while Havertz, generally played as a left-footed LF/LAF, where his finishing angles feel limited, has struggled with fitness issues, consistency and a position that limits his strengths.
Signs of Optimism
Not all is doom and gloom, however, and there are plenty of reasons to be optimistic. Kovacic is one player working to Lukaku's strengths – using line breaking passes, excellent running capabilities to get into the box more, as well as passing from deep to create openings.
Mount, who has been encouraged by coach Joe Edwards to attack the box more, would do well to take Kovacic's lead. Conor Gallagher, excellent at making explosive runs into the box, could be a key figure linking up with Lukaku next season. Tuchel himself isn't doing much wrong; having understood that Lukaku (as well as Werner and Havertz) function best as part of a strike duo, he introduced the 3-5-2 and 4-2-2-2 to help the 2nd forward utilize the extra space. After initially deploying Lukaku in a rigid central role, there have been signs that he is allowing the Belgian to drift to the right like he did at Inter, which opened spaces in the center for the 2nd forward or midfield runners.
Lukaku heatmap comparison: Inter 20/21 (left) vs Chelsea 21/22 (right). Notice the more prominent spots in central zones in the second picture, as well as the lack of sustained activity on the right flank, a zone he likes to drift into to create space elsewhere.
Credit: Sofascore
With injury worries slightly easing up, the benefits of consistent game time for Lukaku (as well as other forwards) will become more apparent for certain. For now, Tuchel's headache isn't Lukaku at all.
More compelling issues demand answers, such as how he stops teams targeting gaping weaknesses at WB/FB, potential reinforcements in January, and how he can keep his squad, who have played the most games of any side in the Premier League this season, from burning out before the Club World Cup, a Carabao Cup final and a crucial run in the second half of the league.
Written By @CFCCentral3 (Follow him on Twitter for more).
A very interesting read and analysis, something in which I concur with. Ultimately we need to allow Rom to use all of his capabilities but equally those around him need to chip in with goals from the chances he's cresting. I hope we find our rhythm soon as he can still be a hugely important player for us.
Excellent tactical analysis of CFCCentral!!