The missing ingredient(s).....

Deep-dive into the numbers and facts around Chelsea's slump over the last 2 months, here's the answers....

Good Morning All,

This article was teased last week by The Gaffer, Mr Si Phillips. The curiosity got me and as you all know I like to find numbers and facts behind things.

The eye test is also really important to me, but data gives you a factual barometer at times as well.

The first thing I thought when I really thought about the slump since mid-December was the lack of European Football, since our last Conference League game on the 19th December Chelsea have won 2 league games and 1 FA cup game. Before that we had won 9 out of 10 games.

A young squad with winning momentum, sounds look it could play a part. Whether or not the ‘main 11’ were playing the confidence and winning momentum must have been coursing through the entire group. European football also usually means you are playing 2 games per week, so the turn around to recover from a bad result is quicker, leaving less time to dwell on a result and lose that confidence/momentum. That is one theory I had.

Then I started to think about players we lost through injury around that period, the first of which being Wesley Fofana, who was having his minutes managed anyway, and again picked up another injury. BUT, the statistics when Fofana plays are actually surprising considering he was getting some stick earlier in the season, slightly unfairly in my opinion.

When Fofana has played we have won 7, drawn 4 and lost just the 1 game this season. That being the first game of the season at home to Man City. In those games we average conceding 1 goal per game (12) and scoring 2.1 per game (25). Without Fofana we have lost 5, won 5 and drawn 3. We have both scored and conceded 22 in that time at 1.7 goals conceded/scored per game. Both metrics have changed for the worse without Fofana as have our overall results.

Although I do believe we miss Fofana for his pace in recovery and being able to bring the ball out from the back, I feel the biggest thing we miss for him is Levi Colwill feeling secure and being able to play his football. Since Fofana has come out of the team Colwill’s form has fell off a cliff, he has been really poor since the turn of the year (as have a lot of players). But, I do believe Colwill is better with a more aerially dominating centre back. Fofana is in the top 10% of Defenders in Europe for percentage of aerials won, he averages winning around 70% of his aerial duels compared to Colwill who is barely in the top 50% of defenders in Europe. Fofana’s more physical attributes compliment Levi’s ball playing and passing, without that Levi’s weaknesses are highlighted.

I won’t detail every statistic as there are so many, but Fofana’s ball progression whether it be passing or carrying is missed as well. He ranks so high in all metrics involved in those actions.

HOWEVER, the main reason I wanted to write this article was because of Romeo Lavia.

You all know how huge of a fan I am of his, I have said countless times that I believe Lavia even has a higher ceiling than Caicedo (different profile of player) if it wasn’t for his constant injuries.

Lavia has played 12 games for Chelsea this season, with a record of 7 wins, 3 draws and 2 defeats. The defeats coming against Manchester City in the first game of the season and away at Anfield, where on the day Chelsea arguably could and should have won the game.

In the games Lavia has played we have scored 27 goals at 2.25 per game and conceded 15 at 1.25 per game. I think we have looked our most fluid when he has been on the pitch, some of the games he has played in, he gives us that press resistance in midfield and the ability for Palmer to be less defensively aware, as there is usually a Lavia Caicedo pivot.

Baring in mind the amount of minutes Lavia has played he ranks in the top 3% for pass completion among midfielders in Europe’s top 5 leagues, in the top 2% for long distance passes complete and in the top 1% for medium distance passes complete. He also ranks in the top 5% for through balls, top 1% for passes blocked, top 10% for tackles in the middle and attacking thirds, top 3% for interceptions and top 1% for % of Aerials won at 78%. He also averages almost 5 tackles & interceptions per game putting him in the top 6%

You can see why there has been a drop off in our form whenever he has been out injured, he is a hugely important cog in the system that Maresca has implemented. BUT, the fact we rely on a player with his injury record is certainly alarming.

I now need to clarify the point of this article.

I am NOT saying these are the only reasons we have dropped off, far from it. There are clearly tactical issues, squad issues and probably many other factors involved.

I was just very surprised by some of the numbers behind the performances of Fofana and Lavia whilst also our record since the break in our Conference League season.

All of this is statistical and not eye test driven as mentioned at the start, with the naked eye I could see that we miss both players in certain scenarios and that their presence would help but I didn’t expect the numbers to be so high.

Lets hope we can get them both back playing soon and more importantly keep them playing consistently. I wont be holding my breath though.

I hope you all enjoyed reading this and hopefully you gained something from it.

Thanks for reading.

Luke Rushbrook