Stability or Change? What does the data tell us?

Have we made progress and should Pochettino stay?

I’ve seen many people say our project is failing, that many of our players aren’t good enough, and we need to ditch it completely and start over.

To me, these seem wild assumptions, based on circumstantial evidence, and mainly on a few bad results and previous bad decisions which aren’t relevant to the present.

The one person who fans use as a lightning rod and measure for success, is the head coach. In this case Mauricio Pochettino.

I’ve honestly never been so divided on a manager. He was my second choice and I was pleased when he was appointed. I still believe he’s a quality coach and excellent at developing young talent, and a world class man manager.

In recent months, I’ve wanted him out. I didn’t see any solid tactical set-ups, his in game management was questionable and his lack of connection with fans were issues for me. Then we’ve won a few games and it looked a lot brighter, and I hovered in my view, then we’d have more bad results and performances, and my view was reinforced.

But the recent four games Aston Villa away (where we should have won if not for a wrong VAR decision), Spurs and West Ham at home, and Nottingham Forest away, as a group of games, feel different to me.

There’s a tangible improvement in our consistency, mentality, and fluidity. We look tactically organised, Pochettino has made game changing substitutions. We’ve also shown character to win against Nottingham Forest, when losing with 10 mins to go, when we didn’t have our best overall performance, a game we would have lost early this season, in my view.

I’m trying not going to go hard on my conclusion until the season ends, but I’m starting to see compelling reasons to keep Pochettino.

The other thing which keeps bringing me back to Poch, is the data. Now you can have bad data and good data, and data can be twisted, but there’s some data which is good data and can’t be ignored.

Improvement in a long term model is measured over a season or even multiple seasons, and not just with trophies. So if a team is developing and improving, you’d expect the results, and data to improve over the season. There’s tangible proof this is happening.

After 15 PL games - up to and including Man Utd away on 5th December 2023, we were 11th in the table, with 19 points. 1.26 points per game, which is 48 points over a 38 game season.

In the following 21 PL games, a more than ample sample period where we’ve played Man City, Liverpool, Newcastle, Man Utd, Arsenal, and Aston Villa, we’ve been 4th in the form table. Only Liverpool, Arsenal and Man City have got more points than us in that time. We’ve had 11 wins, 5 draws and 5 defeats, and 38 points at 1.80 points per game. Over a season, that points per game ratio would see us with about 69 points, which could well have made us top 4 even this season, certainly a close 5th.

And this is with Reece James, Christopher Nkunku, Wesley Fofana and Romeo Lavia missing for pretty much that entire time and a multitude of other injuries to key players.

The other huge stat which no one seems to mention, is that Chelsea have, from the start of the season, obtained 19 (NINETEEN) points from losing positions. In 9 games this season Chelsea have come from behind to draw or win.

Now this might seem nothing, but last season we only achieved this only once, and then we went 42 PL games without coming from behind to win even once before our 4-1 win against Burnley away in matchday 8 this season. We’ve done it a further 4 times in 28 games since, including the dramatic win v Man Utd at home seen above.

That’s a sign of good team spirit, character and strong mentality in the squad, and this has tangibly grown over the season. There’s a togetherness there we’ve not seen in a Chelsea squad for some time, and the previous toxicity in the squad, something we’ve moaned about every year for it seems aeons, has disappeared. The squad seems unified and together, and this is a tangible achievement.

This is definitely something which can be attributed to Pochettino. Mentality and character in young squads especially is driven by the head coach, and Pochettino has done a superb job in that regard. The players are almost universally behind him, want to win for him, and have been behind him even after tough defeats. That’s a huge positive and not something to be taken lightly.

Finally, our goalscoring. This season we’ve scored 99 goals in all competitions (49 games), 73 in the PL, with two games still to go. We scored 50 goals in all comps (50 games) and 38 goals in the PL in 22/23. So there’s been a marked improvement in goalscoring, even without an established, proven striker in the squad.

We’ve had a lot of false dawns this season. I know its’ a huge risk to say this, and I could look very silly if things go wrong this week, but the last few weeks genuinely feels different. I have a little more confidence in this team now. I don’t fear total capitulation (even if we lose), and I have more confidence we can come from behind to get a result. I’m confident we’ll get a minimum of 4 points in the next two games, potentially even 6.

Comparisons often come across badly, but there is one comparison I want to make because its almost a mirror image of ours and has one big similarity - the manager. It’s Spurs in Poch’s first season there, 2014/2015. After 15 games of that season, Spurs were 10th in the Premier League with 21 points - we were 11th with 19. They finished the season with 64 points, finishing 5th - we could finish with 63 points, finishing 6th.

Pochettino also reached a league cup final in his first year at Spurs, losing, of course, to Chelsea. We, too, reached a league cup final this season and lost.

Pochettino is essentially doing almost point for point what he did at Spurs. My own personal perspective is that he feels at Chelsea, with more ambition and a bigger budget than he ever had at Spurs, he can potentially build what he never had the resources to do at Spurs.

A winning team.

Pochettino’s teams tend to improve season on season. In Poch’s second season at Spurs, they got 70 PL points and challenged for the title, eventually finishing in 3rd. He’d spent a total of £79m gross (even less net), over two summer windows, less a third of what he spent last summer at Chelsea alone and less than we’re likely to spend this summer.

In his third season, he came 2nd in the PL with 86 points, 8 points clear of third place and 7 points off the champions…Chelsea. Finishing above even Pep’s Man City with a much smaller spend than both them, and that he will have here.

There was gradual improvement over 3 seasons. From 10th half way through season one, to 2nd in season 3. With more resources, he could have achieved a lot more.

What we can see from the evidence of this season, is Pochettino has far from lost it. He’s still capable of achieving what he did at Spurs, and with our budget, squad and ambition, it may be that he can achieve a lot more. If the Spurs pattern continues next season then the current squad will improve still further. If we can get our key injured players fit again, reduce injuries overall and make the right investment this coming window, there’s every chance Chelsea can achieve 70-75 points next season, which would likely mean a top 4 finish, and potentially win a domestic cup, or even Europa/Conference if we’re in it. Then who knows what could happen in his third season with more investment and improvement.

Yes, I know, it all seems a bit fanciful right now. I know, we’ve had tons of false dawns this season. Yes, I know people have fears about the recruitment decisions. I get the reasons for cynicism.

But the data is pretty clear about how we’re developing. The owners WILL look at all this data. They’ll look at every possible metric there is when judging Pochettino’s future, and they will unquestionably see improvement.

My hope too, that from a culture of short termism and instant success, that Chelsea’s owners and fans can appreciate the potential of what’s being built here, and develop patience. Yes, there are lessons to learn, improvements to be made to the squad, big decisions to be made, and Poch needs to do more to connect with Chelsea fans. 100%.

Maybe Poch isn’t the long term guy to win things, but the job now is to lay foundations and build a team. He’s done it before at Spurs and the data shows the exact same thing is happening at Chelsea, at a club with bigger ambition and more money to spend than Poch ever had when he was at Spurs.

I’ve been wanting Poch out for a while and I don’t change my mind lightly. I think when you examine the data though, it's very difficult to ignore the clear improvements being made over a relatively long period of games - 4th best team in the PL over the last 21 games.

Going back to the last 4 games, of which we’ve won 3 and drawn one. As I mentioned, with the drawn game, we would have won had VAR done its job properly. We’ve played well in 3 of those games, and against Forest we didn’t play brilliantly, but we showed character and spirit, as well as quality under pressure, to come from behind and get the win. Poch has shown his tactical nous, and against Forest made some hugely effective substitutions which won the game for us.

Discounting the managers who’ve been ruled out, I don’t see many viable candidates who could dramatically improve us more than Pochettino could next season. I also see the value in having some stability at the club on the men's side, and finally giving a manager time. If next season we find its not working, letting him go at the end of the season will be easier, as his contract expires - or will have only a year left if we extend it. His impact has been positive this year, and will likely continue to be so next year.

My expectation when Reece James, Wesley Fofana and Christopher Nkunku were injured in the summer, was for us to get 6th or 7th and have a good cup run. This has near enough been achieved. The goal of top 4 was never realistic with the amount of injuries and number of key players who’ve missed most of the season. Of course, more will be expected next season, but for this season, my expectations are near enough achieved.

Chelsea may still decide to make a change, and if they do, whoever comes in - and it will need to be the right man, and an upgrade - will have some solid foundations to build upon for next season. The squad has developed and grown in performance and character over the year, and under a top coach this progress is likely to continue, especially with key injured players back and a summer window to refine the squad.

We won’t be title challengers next season or maybe not even the year after (thought that's not impossible). However, I’m pretty confident this Chelsea team will keep developing and improving over time, and in 2-3 years, be ready for a title challenge again.

We just need to have a little more patience, back this young squad, and whoever is in charge next season.

Whatever happens in the final two games, I’m growing in confidence that Chelsea are on the way back again, and although I’ve been vehemently Poch out for the last few months, I’m happy to admit he deserves a lot of credit for that.

I am much more open now for him to continue in charge next season. All the candidates I see as legitimate upgrades are unavailable or moving elsewhere. There’s no point making a change and creating instability when a legitimate upgrade is difficult to find, especially with what will be a disrupted pre-season ahead. Stability right now will be good for the club and allow us to begin next season with some positive momentum.

As things stand, with all of these factors taken into account, I’d rather have some stability with Pochettino, hopefully see more improvement next year, and then we’re in a better position next summer if we want to make a change. Or, if we improve significantly next season, we extend Pochettino and let him continue. It gives more time to really see if this improvement is sustained and make a proper judgement on Pochettino, and find a proper replacement from what will be a better field next summer, rather than make a hasty judgement now.

The data is clear we’re making progress this season. If a truly elite manager was available, I’d still be open to change. But without a clear replacement, I’m loath to potentially upset the stability we have and create more instability by making a change now.

Maybe trying a bit of stability for once, might be good for Chelsea.

The Score