So where are the goals coming from?

Christopher Nkunku isn't back for a while...how will Chelsea score goals until then and where in the PL can we finish?

Most fans are still are rightly angry about the Nottingham Forest result. It was a frustrating game and a hugely disappointing result.

But some of the reaction has, to my mind, been way way over the top. Turning on the manager after 5 games, blaming it all on the tactics - despite us having the same chances created as Brighton and Spurs and winning XG in every game, which suggests there’s nothing wrong with our chance creation - and even worse, saying it all going wrong because Ben Chilwell is playing on the wing, which not only isn’t true, it’s only a temporary measure whilst other attackers get fit.

People are already doom mongering and predicting another season like last and they fear for our future. There’s genuinely no need for that.

I’ll tell you something for free. You could pick any managerial name, Pep Guardiola, Jurgen Klopp, anyone, bring them to Chelsea now, and they will have the same issues as Mauricio Pochettino. Because the biggest issues aren’t tactical or team selection, they are to do with injuries and personnel.

We have a squad with an average age of 22, one of the youngest in the leagues. Data going back all the way to 1994 suggests young teams are inconsistent at first. They’ve only been together a few weeks, and are still getting to know each other. We also have several key players and difference makers injured. Chelsea have 9 first team squad players injured at the last count, out of 26. Currently we have 17 first team players available for a match-day squad of 20.

As for tactics being the issue, the data on Chelsea’s attack this season in the PL is pretty conclusive. Tactics and system are not an issue at all. This shows where we rank in the PL in all the key attacking areas after four games. (Thanks to Expected Chelsea for these)

Crosses — 1st in the PL

Big chances created — 2nd

Passes into box — 3rd

Progressive passes — 3rd

Through balls — 3rd

Touches in box — 3rd

Successful dribbles — 3rd

Carries into box — 3rd

Shots — Joint 4th

Shot quality — 6th

However, the caveat to this, is our big chances taken is a big fat zero.

And that’s the biggest problem right now.

Chelsea have had the same number of big chances this season as Brighton and Spurs and have won on XG in every game. The difference? Those teams have better finishers than we do. If we’d played the same way in all our games and had Evan Ferguson, Heung-min Son, Erling Haaland or a proven finisher in our team, or even just had Christopher Nkunku fit, we could have been sitting here on 10-12 points…with the same tactical setup.

Head coach Mauricio Pochettino and the sporting directors have trusted Nicolas Jackson and Armando Broja up top until January, they’ve also signed Cole Palmer who has high data metrics for shot creation, shooting and scoring, which will improve our creativity and goalscoring.

But Christopher Nkunku’s injury has been the biggest problem. His magic, pace, trickery, creativity and goal scoring changes the whole dimension of our team. He adds goals and assists. If we played the exact same way with him in our team, I’m pretty sure no one would be complaining right now.

But the reality is, we have to survive without him, possibly until January. Let’s say he’s fit again for game-week 21 against Fulham at home on 13th January. 16 PL games.

So, who is scoring the goals until Nkunku comes back? Let's look.

Raheem Sterling has been excellent this season, and I’m pretty confident he’ll get some goals - his ratio generally is a PL goal every 2-3 games, so you’d hope for another 6-8 goals before then. He normally gets half the assists as goals, so you’d expect about 3-4 assists by then too.

Nicolas Jackson, I estimated to get about 14-15 PL goals this season. He’s a huge talent but he’s also raw, and has to improve in some areas. However, especially with Cole Palmer’s arrival I think he’ll be able to get some goals. So I’d have him down for about 6-7 goals before January too.

Cole Palmer has not played too much football but the data suggests he’s in the 99th percentile for shots, non penalty XG, and the 91st percentile on shot creating actions. He scored in the Community Shield and SuperCup games for City this season and is ready to break out, having been well developed by the City academy. This is the type of player you want in your team. At youth level Palmer’s scoring record was excellent. He’s another I could see getting 5-6 goals before January if he’s played as a number 10 - his best position.

Armando Broja will likely start a few games and will be sub in others. Say he makes 6 starts and 5 sub appearances. I think it’s possible he could get 4 goals.

I think the midfield can contribute about 4-5 goals (possibly more if Carney Chukwuemeka and Cole Palmer play well) and the defence probably the same, conservatively. Indeed we’ve already had one goal from our CBs.

That’s about 25-30 goals right there. In 16 games. Factor in there’ll be a couple of games we don’t score in two, so its more like 14 games, nearly two goals per game.

The other thing I’ve noticed is we seem to play better when teams come at us and we don’t have to break down low blocks - ironically games like Arsenal, Brighton and City. Now we have a proper defensive midfielder this will help us stop counters and attacks, win the ball, and then, with the likes of Sterling and Reece James down the right, Enzo’s passing, and Jackson’s movement, we can hit on the counter at pace, and hopefully score a goal or two.

Given all this, and looking at our fixtures I think its fair to assess this:

Worst case: Win 7, draw 4 and lose 5. This scenario we enter game week 21 on 29 points - which last season, would have had us 8th after match-day 20th. This is probably the most likely scenario for me.

Medium case: Win 8, draw 4, lose 4. This scenario we enter game week 21 on 31 points, which would be enough for 6th at the same point last year.

Best case: Win 9, draw 4, lose 4. This scenario sees us on 33 points, enough for 5th after 20 games last season.

So worst case, we’re 8th/9th come Nkunku’s return. Of course there’s also a chance, as Simon has reported elsewhere, we could sign Ivan Toney.

The return of Nkunku alone will improve our attack significantly, potentially adding Ivan Toney as well would do so even more. In the remaining 18 games, if he is signed I’d expect 8-10 goals from Toney and still about 5-6 from Jackson.

If Toney isn’t signed, I’d expect Armando Broja to get enough game-time to get 5 PL goals. I’d also expect Jackson to get 6-8 PL goals playing with Nkunku. I’m banking on 7-8 PL goals from Nkunku.

If Raheem Sterling continues his good form over the season, I think he’ll get about 6-7 goals from January onwards. I’d expect 4-5 from our second choice striker (Broja or Jackson) and other attackers getting another 5-6 goals at least, possibly more. Add about 6-8 more goals from midfield and defence combined and you have a minimum 30-35 goals in the second half of the season, most likely more. That’s a minimum of 10 more goals than we scored in the first 20 games, in two less games. For reference, we scored 36 goals in the whole of the 22-23 PL season.

As such you’d expect us to win far more games in the second half of the season.

Worst case (unlikely): 9 wins, 5 draws, 4 defeats

Medium case: 10 wins, 4 draws, 4 defeats

Best case: 12 wins, 3 draws, 3 defeats.

In terms of our season, that would mean the following:

Worst case scenario season: 61 points (7th last season)

Medium case season: 65 points (6th last season)

Best case scenario: 72 points (4th last season)

My view is we probably end up somewhere between medium and best case scenario, and finish 5th, maybe 4th if we’re lucky. If Ivan Toney is signed and plays well, a top 4 finish is possible. With the new UEFA CL qualifying rules, there’s a chance 5th place finishes could mean Champions League football anyway. So all is not lost.

I also think an area we can factor in which will help Chelsea, is that we play one game per week all season. So in the second half of the season, other teams challenging in Europe, especially those who’ve not done so before like Brighton, Villa, Newcastle and even Arsenal - could struggle with injuries and fatigue. Meanwhile we’ll be a lot fresher, and of course Nkunku won’t even have had the first half of the season, so will be full of energy and freshness which will definitely help us in the run in.

This is why I fully expect us to have an excellent FA Cup run, maybe even win it, which would be another pathway into Europe.

Too optimistic? I know some will say that, but I’m pretty sure with Nkunku’s return, not to mention a possible striker addition in January, we can come strong for the last 18 league games and finish the season well.

There’s no underlying evidence this season will be like last season. The underlying data actually suggests we’ve improved significantly without yet seeing it on the pitch.

As long as we don't set impossible expectations, I believe this season can and will be a good one with a ton of progress, and maybe a trophy.

The Score