Expectations for this season - short and long term

What to expect as we approach another season at Chelsea FC

Contribution article from The Score.

A survey was once done of the happiest country on earth, and it turned out it was Norway. The reason given was they don’t have high expectations, or at least are much more pragmatic and realistic in their expectations. Indeed when asked if others should try and model their approach in order to be happy, they responded “no, they’ll just be disappointed”. 

Expectations of Chelsea fans in the last 6 years have generally exceeded our achievements - 2021 apart - and so obviously as fans we have perennially disappointed.  

Of course our standards as the most successful English club in the last 26 years are somewhat higher, but compared to that and relative to our spending since 2017, results have been disappointing overall.

It does seem things have got to a point where some of our fans only enjoy football if we win a trophy. Which to me, as someone who waited 20 years of my life to see us lift even one trophy, is tragic. 

This isn’t to say I don’t want to win trophies. I mean what fan doesn’t dream of their club winning the trophies?  

I think we need to shift our thinking and mindset to a more Norwegian one - a long term approach: it might make football more enjoyable.

What I mean is quite simple. The long term goal is still the same. Chelsea to be competing for the big trophies every single season and winning trophies consistently.  

That’s the goal for the club, I know for a fact it’s the goal of the owners (for the cynics amongst you, they broke a British transfer record for a world class midfielder in January, and even more significantly, stand to make more money out of Chelsea if we’re winning than if we aren’t).  It’s why Pochettino chose us as well. 

But for the short short and medium term, we have to grasp some realities. 

Man City, whatever you think of the ethics and legality of their spending - and they are arguably questionable at the very least - are the dominant side in England and arguably even in Europe right now. They are light years ahead of us, and most other teams, in the Premier League. That’s not just due to their great recruitment and structure, but the managerial genius of Pep Guardiola, arguably the best manager in the world right now. 

Catching them in the modern game can’t be done with money alone. Even before the current ownership’s big spend, we had spent 750-800m since 2017 trying to catch them and were still 15-20 points behind. We’re further behind than ever.

The only club to get consistently close and actually usurp them in the PL in recent years is Liverpool. They needed the coaching genius of Jurgen Klopp and recruitment genius of Michael Edwards to even get close. They were 10th in the table the day Klopp took over, and it took them them 3 and a half years and some very good recruitment to win the league even once. Twice more they have got within one point of City, their 97 points to finish 2nd in 2018 proving the levels needed to usurp City. 

This is the challenge facing Chelsea now. Mauricio Pochettino takes over Chelsea with us having finished 12th on the league and needing to complete a rebuild. 

Although not entirely similar in style, Pochettino is similar to Klopp on terms of his history of longevity at clubs and ability to build teams playing attacking, winning football for long term sustained success. He also has the charisma and man management skills to manage a club for a long period and connect with fans. 

It’s notable before Klopp arrived that FSG, the American owners of Liverpool, were facing a lot of criticism. In 4 and a half years they had sacked 3 managers, won one trophy and challenged for the league once. It’s not dissimilar to the criticism directed at our current owners. But once they got Klopp and Michael Edwards in tandem and let them loose, big improvement were made.  

It’s here I see another parallel with Chelsea now. We’ve appointed an elite coach with a strong mentality, and experience, who knows the game. If we can hire the correct man to be the footballing number one, CEO of football, to partner with Pochettino - maybe Michael Edwards himself - we could replicate not just the Klopp / Edwards / Klopp axis at Liverpool, but the Emma Hayes / Paul Green axis which has steered Chelsea’s women’s team to sustained dominance. 

The raw materials are there and coming into place. 

This brings me back to expectations. Although our long term expectations or ambitions should never change, in the short and medium term, the expectations should be lower. 

We need to see progress on the pitch. A clear tactical identity. Top young players being developed. A good team spirit and healthy, positive but competitive culture to replace the toxicity we have seen for so many years. A team which makes us proud, is enjoyable to watch, and wins football matches. 

In terms of next season’s league position, 5th is a realistic goal. That may well be a Champions League spot next season too. 4th is more of a dream, but still entirely possible if we have a good season. A cup run in there might be good too. 

The season after expectations go up a bit again, and so on, until hopefully we get to a place where we can feel confident in our ability to challenge Man City.

It’s a long journey ahead, but if we can be a little more Norwegian in our mentality and temper our expectations in the immediate and medium term it will be a more enjoyable process and arguably more satisfying if and when we achieve those longer term ambitions we all have. 

The Score